Handicapping the election
As promised, although somewhat abbreviated due to illness, here are my election predictions.
Let’s get the easy and simple ones out of the way: Bob Casey, Jr. wins by about 8 points. Ed Rendell wins a second term as governor, but doesn’t break 60 percent (in fact, he might not break 55, because, based on the sample of folks I’ve talked to, while they’d never vote for Lynn Swann, they won’t vote for Rendell, either).
Congressional seats:
PA-7: Sestak over Weldon by 6 points. The GOP ground game might take a hit, but you have to still think the margin will still be hurt by better Republican turnout. It’s a nice, solid win for the Democrats in a district that is increasingly leaning Democrat.
PA-6: I still have a bad feeling here. It literally could go either way. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to make a call, I’ll say Gerlach holds off Murphy by a sliver, less than the margin of 2004 and possibly an outcome that gets contested in court.
PA-8: this is the war referendum district and I think the polls are light on this race — more people privately oppose the war than admit it. Patrick Murphy wins by four.
PA-10: Carney over Sherwood. Give the points. Seriously.
State house:
Democratic winners — Barbara McIllvane Smith, Anne Crowley and Brian Lentz will win — at minimum.
How to measure the outcome: if there’s no wave on Tuesday it won’t be because of a sudden change of opinion, but rather wholesale vote fraud using electronic voting devices. If the press fails to pursue it — and I think this time, they will — the republic is lost and our democracy will have ended.
The most likely scenario has the Democrats taking back the house, with the Senate kind of iffy. Assuming election fraud in minimal and balance by both sides, i like the Democrats to pick up six seats and take back control.