The Hillary Problem
One of the good things about being out of politics is the ability to let it loose again when I write and not soften what’s on my mind.
So here goes: Hillary Clinton is pushing the Democratic party to its death. What George W. Bush is to America, Clinton is to the Democratic Party.
I don’t write this out of misguided love for Barack Obama. Sure, I support him as a less evil, less divisive option to Ms. Clinton, but I’m well aware of his flaws, much as I was aware of the flaws of Bill Clinton back in 1992 when I thought he was the best option for America. But so much has changed in 16 years.
Maybe it’s the constant calls from Emily’s List in the weeks coming up to the Pennsylvania primary. Maybe it’s the combination of experiences from many years as a candidate, local party leader and campaign manager. I’m a white, straight male and frankly, I don’t much feel like I belong in the Democratic Party anymore. Goodness knows, I feel even less comfortable about being a Republican these days (something shared by a lot of Republicans, I might add).
So if me, a partisan, active Democrat feels shunted aside (and let’s be honest, there’s a small minority of women in the party who treat men like having a penis equals being Adolph Hitler), what do the average, boring white guys think? Well, pretty much the same thing. A lot of them see Obama as being someone they can relate to, drink a beer with, play a little pickup basketball and maybe, trust. Hillary comes off as a shrill, uber feminist who seems to dislike most men, Bill included, truth be told.
Of course, none of that is fatal for the Democratic Party, candidates come and go. If you can survive Mike Dukakis, you can survive any single candidate.
But see, here’s the problem: by any sensible mathematical metric, Hillary Clinton cannot win the nomination. She can’t claim the most popular votes. (counting Florida and Michigan while discounting all of the caucuses? C’mon.) She can’t claim the most pledged delegates. So basically, she can only win by strong arming the party and the superdelegates. After Pennsylvania, Clinton cannot win the nomination by getting the average voter to vote for her, but rather by backroom deals in defiance of the voters’ will.
And if that happens? Well, Clinton might be the last nominee of the Democratic Party as we know it. A lot of people will walk. A lot. Some smart people — people smarter than I, which I suppose doesn’t limit the pool much — will start a moderate party, one less interested in pandering to the extreme right or the extreme left and I think it could get traction, from disaffected Democrats and Republicans.
And that could mean the end of the Democratic Party. While the GOP will always get the backing of big business, a diminished Democratic Party will struggle to find support among its fractured remaining base and may have to merge with the Green Party just to pick up an occasional seat in Congress. People say such a thing is impossible, but American history proves otherwise. The Federalist Party imploded and was replaced by the Whigs, which also imploded and was ultimately replaced by the Republican Party. Thanks to the Internet, the creation of a new party is a lot easier than it might have been even a decade ago, so I’m willing to bet this will happen.
Look, it seems obvious that Hillary Clinton doesn’t care about the future of the Democratic Party. But I know for a fact that many of her supporters do. I’m hoping they can step back for a moment, look hard at the numbers and understand the consequences of what may play out over the next 60 days.
The future of the Democratic Party is in their hands.